Benfica vs Alverca
Portugal Primeira Liga
Benfica
Alverca
November 2, 2026 at 21:15 · Estádio da Luz
Upcoming
Benfica vs Alverca prediction and betting tip for this Portugal Primeira Liga match, kicking off November 2, 2026 at 21:15 at Estádio da Luz. Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals (odds 1.11), 86% confidence.
- Over 2.5 Goals Upcoming
- Home Win Either Half Upcoming
- Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X) Upcoming
Benfica vs Alverca Preview
Benfica host Alverca in the Portugal Primeira Liga (matchday 10) on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 21:15 WAT at Estádio da Luz in Lisbon. Bruno Pires Costa is the referee.
Benfica are 2nd in the table with 22 points from 9 games (7-1-1), while Alverca sit 9th on 11 points. Benfica have a 11-point advantage. At home Benfica have won 3 of 4; Alverca have won 2 of 4 on the road.
Benfica have four wins and one defeat in their last 5 league games (W-W-L-W-W), averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Alverca have three wins and two defeats in their last 5 league games (L-W-W-W-L), averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
In their last 2 meetings Benfica have won 2, Alverca 0, with 0 draws and an average of 3.0 goals per game. The most recent, in February 2026, finished Benfica 2-1 Alverca.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Bookmakers make Benfica the favourites: Benfica 1.17, draw 8.00, Alverca 13.00 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.40 and under at 2.88. Both teams to score: yes 2.05, no 1.70.
Our prediction: Over 1.5 Goals. Recent form points to 3.1 goals a game and bookmakers price over 1.5 at 1.11.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | +18 | 22 |
| 9 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 07:26. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 2.50 – 0.99 · most likely score 2-0 · data quality 80/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Benfica win | 70.3% |
| Draw | 16.8% |
| Alverca win | 12.9% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 87.1% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 29.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.4% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 54.0% |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% |
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 1 Nov 2026, 11:13, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals — Recent form points to 3.1 goals a game and bookmakers price over 1.5 at 1.11.
Form (last 5)
Benfica
WWLWW
2.4 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
Alverca
LWWWL
1.8 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Benfica wins 0 draws 0 Alverca wins last 2 meetings
- Benfica2 - 1Alverca Primeira Liga
- Alverca1 - 2Benfica Primeira Liga
Statistics: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 00:11. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
