Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios
Colombia Primera A
Deportes Tolima
Millonarios
November 9, 2026 at 00:10 · Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
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Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios prediction and betting tip for this Colombia Primera A match, kicking off November 9, 2026 at 00:10 at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals (odds 1.25), 82% confidence.
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios Preview
Deportes Tolima host Millonarios in the Colombia Primera A (Clausura - 18) on Monday 9 November 2026, kick-off 00:10 WAT at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Deportes Tolima are 11th in the table with 23 points from 17 games (6-5-6), while Millonarios sit 7th on 27 points. Millonarios have a 4-point advantage. At home Deportes Tolima have won 3 of 8; Millonarios have won 3 of 9 on the road.
Deportes Tolima have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last 5 league games (D-L-L-L-W), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Millonarios have one win and four draws in their last 5 league games (D-D-W-D-D), averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Deportes Tolima have won 2, Millonarios 4, with 0 draws and an average of 2.0 goals per game. The most recent, in April 2026, finished Millonarios 2-0 Deportes Tolima.
Deportes Tolima average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 12 clean sheets and 12 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Millonarios average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 12 clean sheets and 6 games without scoring, usually in a 5-3-2.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: A. Parra leads Deportes Tolima's scoring with 9 goals and 5 assists; A. Estupiñán leads Millonarios's scoring with 19 goals and 4 assists.
Bookmakers make Deportes Tolima the favourites: Deportes Tolima 2.20, draw 3.25, Millonarios 3.25 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.15 and under at 1.67. Both teams to score: yes 1.83, no 1.83.
Our prediction: Under 3.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.4 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.0 goals and recent form points to 2.6 goals a game.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Millonarios | 17 | 6 | 9 | 2 | +10 | 27 |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | +1 | 23 |
Season stats
| Deportes Tolima | Millonarios | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 40 | 36 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 16 / 12 / 12 | 13 / 14 / 9 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 52 (1.3) | 55 (1.5) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 41 (1.0) | 37 (1.0) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.7 / 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 12 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 12 | 6 |
| Longest winning run | 2 | 2 |
| Biggest win | 4-1 | 5-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 5-3-2 |
Top scorers
- A. Parra 9 goals · 5 assists
- A. Estupiñán 19 goals · 4 assists
- L. Castro 12 goals · 6 assists
- R. Contreras 10 goals · 1 assist
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 8 Nov 2026, 15:26. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.22 – 0.98 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 94/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima win | 41.6% | 42.5% | 2.20 | -8.5% |
| Draw | 28.8% | 28.8% | 3.25 | -6.4% |
| Millonarios win | 29.6% | 28.8% | 3.25 | -3.8% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 70.4% | 71.2% | 1.33 | -6.4% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 58.4% | 57.5% | 1.67 | -2.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.7% | 68.8% | 1.36 | -11.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.0% | 43.7% | 2.15 | -18.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62.0% | 56.3% | 1.67 | +3.6% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 81.8% | 75.0% | 1.25 | +2.2% |
| Both teams to score | 44.2% | 50.0% | 1.83 | -19.1% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 10%, draw 45%, away 45%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 8 Nov 2026, 16:14, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.4 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.0 goals and recent form points to 2.6 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Deportes Tolima
DLLLW
1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded per game
Millonarios
DDWDD
1.6 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Deportes Tolima wins 0 draws 4 Millonarios wins last 6 meetings
- Millonarios2 - 0Deportes Tolima Primera A
- Deportes Tolima3 - 1Millonarios Primera A
- Millonarios2 - 0Deportes Tolima Primera A
- Millonarios1 - 0Deportes Tolima Primera A
- Deportes Tolima2 - 0Millonarios Primera A
- Millonarios1 - 0Deportes Tolima Primera A
Statistics: API-Football · updated 8 Nov 2026, 15:26. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
