Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares
Colombia Primera A
Deportivo Pasto
Jaguares
November 4, 2026 at 00:20 · Estadio Departamental Libertad
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Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares prediction and betting tip for this Colombia Primera A match, kicking off November 4, 2026 at 00:20 at Estadio Departamental Libertad. Our tip: Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X) (odds 1.12), 81% confidence.
Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares Preview
Deportivo Pasto host Jaguares in the Colombia Primera A (Clausura - 17) on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 00:20 WAT at Estadio Departamental Libertad in Pasto.
Deportivo Pasto are 20th in the table with 12 points from 16 games (3-3-10), while Jaguares sit 18th on 13 points. Only 1 point separates them. At home Deportivo Pasto have won 1 of 7; Jaguares have won 0 of 8 on the road.
Deportivo Pasto have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last 5 league games (D-L-L-W-L), averaging 0.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Jaguares have two wins and three defeats in their last 5 league games (W-L-L-W-L), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Deportivo Pasto have won 3, Jaguares 1, with 2 draws and an average of 2.2 goals per game. The most recent, in April 2026, finished Jaguares 2-3 Deportivo Pasto.
Deportivo Pasto average 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with 11 clean sheets and 12 games without scoring, usually in a 4-3-3. Jaguares average 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game this season, with 6 clean sheets and 10 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: A. Rentería leads Jaguares's scoring with 12 goals and 3 assists.
Bookmakers make Deportivo Pasto the favourites: Deportivo Pasto 1.53, draw 3.75, Jaguares 6.50 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.95 and under at 1.85. Both teams to score: yes 2.00, no 1.73.
Our prediction: Deportivo Pasto or draw (1X). The model gives Deportivo Pasto or a draw a 90% chance, Jaguares have lost 3 of their last 5 and bookmakers make Deportivo Pasto favourites at 1.53.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jaguares | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -13 | 12 |
Season stats
| Deportivo Pasto | Jaguares | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 37 | 35 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 13 / 7 / 17 | 8 / 7 / 20 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 40 (1.1) | 37 (1.1) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 52 (1.4) | 62 (1.8) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 11 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 12 | 10 |
| Longest winning run | 3 | 1 |
| Biggest win | 2-0 | 3-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-3-3 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
No player in the league's top scorers list.
- A. Rentería 12 goals · 3 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 3 Nov 2026, 13:26. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.70 – 0.86 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 92/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto win | 57.3% | 56.2% | 1.67 | -4.2% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 26.8% | 3.50 | -16.4% |
| Jaguares win | 18.8% | 17.1% | 5.50 | +3.3% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 81.2% | 82.9% | 1.12 | -9.0% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 42.7% | 43.8% | 2.30 | -1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | 72.3% | 1.30 | -5.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 47.4% | 2.00 | -5.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 52.6% | 1.80 | -4.8% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74.5% | 73.2% | 1.28 | -4.7% |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | 46.4% | 2.00 | -5.8% |
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 3 Nov 2026, 18:13, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Deportivo Pasto or draw (1X) — The model gives Deportivo Pasto or a draw a 90% chance, Jaguares have lost 3 of their last 5 and bookmakers make Deportivo Pasto favourites at 1.53.
Form (last 5)
Deportivo Pasto
DLLWL
0.4 scored · 1.2 conceded per game
Jaguares
WLLWL
1.2 scored · 1.8 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
3 Deportivo Pasto wins 2 draws 1 Jaguares wins last 6 meetings
- Jaguares2 - 3Deportivo Pasto Primera A
- Jaguares0 - 0Deportivo Pasto Primera A
- Deportivo Pasto1 - 1Jaguares Primera A
- Jaguares1 - 0Deportivo Pasto Primera A
- Deportivo Pasto1 - 0Jaguares Primera A
- Deportivo Pasto4 - 0Jaguares Primera A
Statistics: API-Football · updated 3 Nov 2026, 00:46. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
