FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München
Germany Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München
November 7, 2026 at 15:30 · MEWA Arena
Upcoming
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München prediction and betting tip for this Germany Bundesliga match, kicking off November 7, 2026 at 15:30 at MEWA Arena. Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals (odds 1.06), 95% confidence.
- Both Teams to Score - Yes Upcoming
- Over 2.5 Goals Upcoming
- Away Win Either Half Upcoming
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München Preview
FSV Mainz 05 host Bayern München in the Germany Bundesliga (matchday 9) on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:30 WAT at MEWA Arena in Mainz. Robert Schroder is the referee.
FSV Mainz 05 are 9th in the table with 10 points from 8 games (3-1-4), while Bayern München sit 1st on 18 points. Bayern München have a 8-point advantage. At home FSV Mainz 05 have won 0 of 4; Bayern München have won 2 of 4 on the road.
FSV Mainz 05 have two wins and three defeats in their last 5 league games (W-L-W-L-L), averaging 2.2 goals scored and 2.8 conceded. Bayern München have three wins and two draws in their last 5 league games (W-D-W-W-D), averaging 4.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, Bayern München 4, with 1 draw and an average of 5.0 goals per game. The most recent, in April 2026, finished FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern München.
FSV Mainz 05 average 2.1 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 3-5-2. Bayern München average 3.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: P. Tietz leads FSV Mainz 05's scoring with 5 goals; M. Olise leads Bayern München's scoring with 6 goals and 3 assists.
Bookmakers make Bayern München the favourites: FSV Mainz 05 7.00, draw 6.50, Bayern München 1.33 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.22 and under at 4.33. Both teams to score: yes 1.44, no 2.62.
Our prediction: Over 1.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 4.3 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 5.0 goals and recent form points to 5.1 goals a game.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 18 |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
Season stats
| FSV Mainz 05 | Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 8 | 8 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 3 / 1 / 4 | 5 / 3 / 0 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 17 (2.1) | 27 (3.4) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 17 (2.1) | 8 (1.0) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.5 / 2.8 | 5.0 / 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 |
| Longest winning run | 1 | 2 |
| Biggest win | 0-5 | 7-0 |
| Usual formation | 3-5-2 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
- P. Tietz 5 goals · 0 assists
- A. Caci 3 goals · 3 assists
- M. Olise 6 goals · 3 assists
- L. Díaz 4 goals · 1 assist
- H. Kane 4 goals · 6 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 14:26. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.42 – 3.26 · most likely score 1-3 · data quality 87/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 win | 13.2% |
| Draw | 13.7% |
| Bayern München win | 73.2% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 26.8% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 86.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 84.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 15.5% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 31.4% |
| Both teams to score | 72.9% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 0%, draw 50%, away 50%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 6 Nov 2026, 16:14, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 4.3 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 5.0 goals and recent form points to 5.1 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
FSV Mainz 05
WLWLL
2.2 scored · 2.8 conceded per game
Bayern München
WDWWD
4.0 scored · 1.2 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
1 FSV Mainz 05 wins 1 draws 4 Bayern München wins last 6 meetings
- FSV Mainz 053 - 4Bayern München Bundesliga
- Bayern München2 - 2FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga
- Bayern München3 - 0FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga
- FSV Mainz 052 - 1Bayern München Bundesliga
- FSV Mainz 050 - 4Bayern München DFB Pokal
- Bayern Munich8 - 1FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga
Statistics: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 14:26. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
