Naftan vs ML Vitebsk
Belarus Premier League
Naftan
ML Vitebsk
November 7, 2026 at 11:00 · Atlant Stadium
Upcoming
Naftan vs ML Vitebsk prediction and betting tip for this Belarus Premier League match, kicking off November 7, 2026 at 11:00 at Atlant Stadium. Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals (odds 1.09), 91% confidence.
- Over 2.5 Goals Upcoming
Naftan vs ML Vitebsk Preview
Naftan host ML Vitebsk in the Belarus Premier League (matchday 28) on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 11:00 WAT at Atlant Stadium in Novopolotsk.
Naftan are 16th in the table with 17 points from 27 games (4-5-18), while ML Vitebsk sit 1st on 59 points. ML Vitebsk have a 42-point advantage. At home Naftan have won 3 of 13; ML Vitebsk have won 10 of 13 on the road.
Naftan have two wins and three defeats in their last 5 league games (W-W-L-L-L), averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. ML Vitebsk have four wins and one defeat in their last 5 league games (W-W-W-L-W), averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.2 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Naftan have won 0, ML Vitebsk 6, with 0 draws and an average of 3.2 goals per game. The most recent, in June 2026, finished ML Vitebsk 2-1 Naftan.
Naftan average 0.9 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game this season, with 5 clean sheets and 13 games without scoring, usually in a 3-5-2. ML Vitebsk average 2.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game this season, with 12 clean sheets and 5 games without scoring, usually in a 4-3-3.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Bookmakers make ML Vitebsk the favourites: Naftan 22.00, draw 8.00, ML Vitebsk 1.11 (Marathonbet). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.40 and under at 2.56. Both teams to score: yes 2.46, no 1.47.
Our prediction: Over 1.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 3.1 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 3.2 goals and recent form points to 2.6 goals a game.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 27 | 17 | 8 | 2 | +37 | 59 |
| 16 | Naftan | 27 | 4 | 5 | 18 | -41 | 17 |
Season stats
| Naftan | ML Vitebsk | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 27 | 27 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 4 / 5 / 18 | 17 / 8 / 2 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 24 (0.9) | 56 (2.1) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 65 (2.4) | 19 (0.7) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 1.7 / 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 13 | 5 |
| Longest winning run | 2 | 5 |
| Biggest win | 4-1 | 5-1 |
| Usual formation | 3-5-2 | 4-3-3 |
Odds (Marathonbet)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 14:26. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 0.62 – 3.47 · most likely score 0-3 · data quality 80/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Naftan win | 3.4% |
| Draw | 7.8% |
| ML Vitebsk win | 88.8% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 11.2% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 96.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.5% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 41.7% |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 0%, draw 50%, away 50%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 6 Nov 2026, 16:14, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 3.1 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 3.2 goals and recent form points to 2.6 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Naftan
WWLLL
1.0 scored · 2.2 conceded per game
ML Vitebsk
WWWLW
1.8 scored · 0.2 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
0 Naftan wins 0 draws 6 ML Vitebsk wins last 6 meetings
- ML Vitebsk2 - 1Naftan Premier League
- ML Vitebsk2 - 0Naftan Premier League
- Naftan0 - 3ML Vitebsk Premier League
- ML Vitebsk2 - 1Naftan Coppa
- Naftan1 - 2ML Vitebsk Friendlies Clubs
- Naftan2 - 3ML Vitebsk 1. Division
Statistics: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 14:26. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
