Twente vs Ajax
Netherlands Eredivisie
Twente
Ajax
November 8, 2026 at 14:30 · De Grolsch Veste
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Twente vs Ajax prediction and betting tip for this Netherlands Eredivisie match, kicking off November 8, 2026 at 14:30 at De Grolsch Veste. Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals (odds 1.10), 80% confidence.
Twente vs Ajax Preview
Twente host Ajax in the Netherlands Eredivisie (matchday 12) on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 WAT at De Grolsch Veste in Enschede. Joey Kooij is the referee.
Twente are 4th in the table with 23 points from 11 games (7-2-2), while Ajax sit 2nd on 24 points. Only 1 point separates them. At home Twente have won 4 of 5; Ajax have won 5 of 5 on the road.
Twente have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 5 league games (W-D-L-W-W), averaging 3.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Ajax have three wins and two draws in their last 5 league games (D-D-W-W-W), averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Twente have won 2, Ajax 3, with 1 draw and an average of 3.0 goals per game. The most recent, in April 2026, finished Ajax 0-1 Twente.
Twente average 2.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Ajax average 2.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets, usually in a 4-3-3.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: W. Weghorst leads Twente's scoring with 8 goals and 2 assists; J. Brandt leads Ajax's scoring with 6 goals and 2 assists.
Line-ups are in: Twente line up in a 4-2-3-1, Ajax in a 4-3-3.
Bookmakers make Twente the favourites: Twente 1.83, draw 4.20, Ajax 3.75 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.40 and under at 2.88. Both teams to score: yes 1.40, no 2.75.
Our prediction: Over 1.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 3.7 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 3.0 goals and recent form points to 3.8 goals a game.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +17 | 24 |
| 4 | Twente | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +18 | 23 |
Season stats
| Twente | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 11 | 11 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 7 / 2 / 2 | 7 / 3 / 1 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 28 (2.5) | 30 (2.7) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 10 (0.9) | 13 (1.2) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 2.0 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 3.6 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 |
| Longest winning run | 3 | 2 |
| Biggest win | 3-1 | 5-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-3-3 |
Top scorers
- W. Weghorst 8 goals · 2 assists
- J. Brandt 6 goals · 2 assists
- T. Arokodare 6 goals · 1 assist
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Starting line-ups
J. Drommel, B. van Rooij, R. Pröpper, R. Nijstad, A. Adelgaard, R. Zerrouki, D. Weidmann, D. Rots, Y. Taha, S. Ørjasæter, W. Weghorst
Coach: J. van den Brom
M. ter Stegen, Lucas Rosa, A. Bouwman, Y. Baas, O. Wijndal, J. Mokio, Y. Bissouma, D. Janse, D. Klaassen, T. Arokodare, O. Gloukh
Coach: Míchel
Data: API-Football · updated 8 Nov 2026, 14:22. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.72 – 1.30 · most likely score 1-1 · data quality 83/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Twente win | 47.3% |
| Draw | 23.7% |
| Ajax win | 29.0% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 71.0% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 52.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.0% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64.4% |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% |
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 8 Nov 2026, 14:13, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 3.7 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 3.0 goals and recent form points to 3.8 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Twente
WDLWW
3.2 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
Ajax
DDWWW
2.2 scored · 1.2 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Twente wins 1 draws 3 Ajax wins last 6 meetings
- Ajax0 - 1Twente Friendlies Clubs
- Ajax1 - 2Twente Eredivisie
- Twente2 - 3Ajax Eredivisie
- Ajax2 - 0Twente Eredivisie
- Twente2 - 2Ajax Eredivisie
- Ajax2 - 1Twente Eredivisie
Statistics: API-Football · updated 8 Nov 2026, 14:21. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
