Club America vs Toluca
Mexico Liga MX
Club America
Toluca
November 1, 2026 at 04:10 · Estadio Banorte
Won
Club America vs Toluca prediction and betting tip for this Mexico Liga MX match, kicking off November 1, 2026 at 04:10 at Estadio Banorte. Our tip: Both Teams to Score - Yes (odds 1.44), 60% confidence. Final score: 2-2 (0-1). The tip won.
- Over 1.5 Goals Won
Club America 2-2 Toluca: Match Report
Club America and Toluca shared the points in a 2-2 draw at Estadio Banorte in the Mexico Liga MX on Sunday. Toluca led 1-0 at half-time.
Federico Viñas opened the scoring for Toluca on 42 minutes, set up by Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro. Henry Martin levelled for Club America on 62 minutes. Alexis Vega put Toluca in front on 87 minutes. Henry Martin levelled for Club America in stoppage time (90+2') from the penalty spot.
Club America had 54% of the ball and 15 shots (5 on target) to Toluca's 17 (7). Expected goals finished Club America 2.08, Toluca 1.94, so a draw was a fair result.
Santiago Bueno (Club America, 85') and Andres Pereira (Toluca, 90+1') were sent off. Referee Luis Enrique Santander Aguirre showed 4 yellow cards.
Our tip, Both Teams to Score - Yes, won as both teams scored.
Goals & cards
- 19' Andres Pereira Toluca · Yellow Card
- 42' Federico Viñas Toluca · assist Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
- 54' Jesús Gallardo Toluca · Yellow Card
- 62' Henry Martin Club America
- 85' Santiago Bueno Club America · Red Card
- 87' Alexis Vega Toluca
- 90+1' Andres Pereira Toluca · Red Card
- 90+2' Henry Martin Club America · Penalty
- 90+4' Israel Reyes Club America · Yellow Card
- 90+6' Miguel Borja Club America · Yellow Card
- 90+10' Erick Sánchez Club America · Yellow Card
Match stats
Before the match
Club America hosted Toluca in the Mexico Liga MX (Apertura - 15) on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 04:10 WAT at Estadio Banorte in Mexico City. Luis Enrique Santander Aguirre was the referee.
Club America are 1st in the table with 28 points from 14 games (8-4-2), while Toluca sit 5th on 23 points. Club America have a 5-point advantage. At home Club America have won 3 of 7; Toluca have won 3 of 7 on the road.
Club America have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 5 league games (D-W-W-L-D), averaging 2.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Toluca have four draws and one defeat in their last 5 league games (D-L-D-D-D), averaging 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Club America have won 2, Toluca 3, with 1 draw and an average of 2.3 goals per game. The most recent, in April 2026, finished Club America 2-1 Toluca.
Club America average 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Toluca average 2.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
Players to watch: H. Martín leads Club America's scoring with 8 goals and 3 assists; F. Viñas leads Toluca's scoring with 7 goals.
Line-ups: Club America lined up in a 4-2-3-1, Toluca in a 4-2-3-1.
Before kick-off, bookmakers made Club America the favourites: Club America 2.30, draw 3.70, Toluca 2.88 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.53 and under at 2.40. Both teams to score: yes 1.44, no 2.62.
Our prediction was Both Teams to Score - Yes. Both sides score regularly and concede most games and bookmakers price both teams to score at 1.44.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 28 |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | +10 | 23 |
Season stats
| Club America | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 14 | 14 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 8 / 4 / 2 | 6 / 5 / 3 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 34 (2.4) | 29 (2.1) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 19 (1.4) | 19 (1.4) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.9 / 3.0 | 2.6 / 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 |
| Longest winning run | 4 | 4 |
| Biggest win | 3-0 | 4-0 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
- H. Martín 8 goals · 3 assists
- M. Borja 6 goals · 0 assists
- B. Rodríguez 5 goals · 3 assists
- F. Viñas 7 goals · 0 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds before kick-off.
Starting line-ups
L. Malagón, K. Álvarez, S. Bueno, S. Ramos, F. Rossano, I. Reyes, É. Sánchez, I. Violante, Carlos Álvarez, Ó. Perea, H. Martín
Coach: G. Almada
L. García, S. Simón, B. Méndez, F. Pereira, J. Gallardo, F. Arce, F. Romero, Helinho, J. Díaz, N. Castro, F. Viñas
Coach: A. Mohamed
Data: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 06:27. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.71 – 1.30 · most likely score 1-1 · data quality 80/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Club America win | 46.9% |
| Draw | 23.7% |
| Toluca win | 29.4% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 70.6% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 53.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.1% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64.5% |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 1 Nov 2026, 03:14, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Both Teams to Score - Yes — Both sides score regularly and concede most games and bookmakers price both teams to score at 1.44.
Form (last 5)
Club America
DWWLD
2.6 scored · 1.8 conceded per game
Toluca
DLDDD
1.8 scored · 2.0 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Club America wins 1 draws 3 Toluca wins last 6 meetings
- Club America2 - 1Toluca Liga MX
- Toluca2 - 0Club America Liga MX
- Club America1 - 3Toluca Campeón de Campeones
- Toluca2 - 0Club America Liga MX
- Club America0 - 0Toluca Liga MX
- Club America3 - 0Toluca Liga MX
Statistics: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 02:26. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
