Sao Paulo vs Corinthians
Brazil Serie A
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
November 5, 2026 at 01:30 · Estadio Do MorumBIS
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Sao Paulo vs Corinthians prediction and betting tip for this Brazil Serie A match, kicking off November 5, 2026 at 01:30 at Estadio Do MorumBIS. Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals (odds 1.22), 78% confidence.
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians Preview
Sao Paulo host Corinthians in the Brazil Serie A (matchday 34) on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 01:30 WAT at Estadio Do MorumBIS in Sao Paulo. R. Claus is the referee.
Sao Paulo are 10th in the table with 43 points from 33 games (12-7-14), while Corinthians sit 17th on 36 points. Sao Paulo have a 7-point advantage. At home Sao Paulo have won 10 of 16; Corinthians have won 3 of 16 on the road.
Sao Paulo have two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 5 league games (L-W-W-D-L), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Corinthians have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last 5 league games (L-L-D-L-W), averaging 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Sao Paulo have won 3, Corinthians 2, with 1 draw and an average of 3.5 goals per game. The most recent, in May 2026, finished Corinthians 3-2 Sao Paulo.
Sao Paulo average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 7 clean sheets and 7 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Corinthians average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 11 clean sheets and 7 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
Sao Paulo will be without Artur (back injury), N. Bosshardt (knee injury), Buta (knee injury), D. Duarte (knee injury), Marcos Antonio (ankle injury) and Sabino (yellow cards), and Ferreira (injury) is doubtful. Corinthians will be without M. Depay (inactive), Gabriel Paulista (inactive), Kayke (knee injury), Z. Labyad (knee injury), Matheuzinho (yellow cards) and Raniele (inactive), and Alex Santana (inactive) is doubtful.
Players to watch: J. Calleri leads Sao Paulo's scoring with 10 goals and 2 assists.
Bookmakers make Sao Paulo the favourites: Sao Paulo 2.30, draw 3.20, Corinthians 3.30 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.30 and under at 1.60. Both teams to score: yes 1.95, no 1.80.
Our prediction: Under 3.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.4 goals, recent form points to 3.0 goals a game and bookmakers price under 3.5 at 1.22.
Team news
- Out Artur Back Injury
- Out N. Bosshardt Knee Injury
- Out Buta Knee Injury
- Out D. Duarte Knee Injury
- Out Marcos Antonio Ankle Injury
- Out Sabino Yellow Cards
- Doubtful Ferreira Injury
- Out M. Depay Inactive
- Out Gabriel Paulista Inactive
- Out Kayke Knee Injury
- Out Z. Labyad Knee Injury
- Out Matheuzinho Yellow Cards
- Out Raniele Inactive
- Doubtful Alex Santana Inactive
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 43 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 36 |
Season stats
| Sao Paulo | Corinthians | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 33 | 33 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 12 / 7 / 14 | 9 / 9 / 15 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 39 (1.2) | 36 (1.1) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 39 (1.2) | 42 (1.3) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 7 |
| Longest winning run | 4 | 3 |
| Biggest win | 4-1 | 3-0 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
- J. Calleri 10 goals · 2 assists
- Luciano 9 goals · 1 assist
No player in the league's top scorers list.
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 4 Nov 2026, 00:47. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.48 – 0.85 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 93/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo win | 51.9% | 41.4% | 2.30 | +19.4% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 29.8% | 3.20 | -15.4% |
| Corinthians win | 21.6% | 28.9% | 3.30 | -28.6% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 78.4% | 71.1% | 1.33 | +4.2% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 48.1% | 58.6% | 1.57 | -24.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.6% | 68.2% | 1.40 | -5.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.2% | 41.0% | 2.30 | -5.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 59.0% | 1.60 | -5.8% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 79.4% | 78.0% | 1.22 | -3.2% |
| Both teams to score | 44.2% | 48.0% | 1.95 | -13.8% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 4 Nov 2026, 05:13, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.4 goals, recent form points to 3.0 goals a game and bookmakers price under 3.5 at 1.22.
Form (last 5)
Sao Paulo
LWWDL
1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded per game
Corinthians
LLDLW
1.4 scored · 2.0 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
3 Sao Paulo wins 1 draws 2 Corinthians wins last 6 meetings
- Corinthians3 - 2Sao Paulo Serie A
- Corinthians1 - 1Sao Paulo Paulista - A1
- Corinthians3 - 1Sao Paulo Serie A
- Sao Paulo2 - 0Corinthians Serie A
- Sao Paulo3 - 1Corinthians Paulista - A1
- Sao Paulo3 - 1Corinthians Serie A
Statistics: API-Football · updated 4 Nov 2026, 00:46. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
