Torreense vs União de Leiria

Portugal Segunda Liga

Torreense

União de Leiria

November 9, 2026 at 21:15 · Estadio Manuel Marques

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Predicted Outcome Under 3.5 Goals

Confidence 78%

Torreense vs União de Leiria prediction and betting tip for this Portugal Segunda Liga match, kicking off November 9, 2026 at 21:15 at Estadio Manuel Marques. Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals (odds 1.40), 78% confidence.

Torreense vs União de Leiria Preview

Torreense host União de Leiria in the Portugal Segunda Liga (matchday 10) on Monday 9 November 2026, kick-off 21:15 WAT at Estadio Manuel Marques in Torres Vedras. Helder Carvalho is the referee.

Torreense are 13th in the table with 10 points from 9 games (2-4-3), while União de Leiria sit 9th on 14 points. União de Leiria have a 4-point advantage. At home Torreense have won 1 of 4; União de Leiria have won 1 of 4 on the road.

Torreense have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 5 league games (W-D-L-W-D), averaging 0.6 goals scored and 0.2 conceded. União de Leiria have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 5 league games (W-D-L-D-W), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.

In their last 6 meetings Torreense have won 4, União de Leiria 1, with 1 draw and an average of 2.7 goals per game. The most recent, in February 2026, finished Torreense 3-1 União de Leiria.

No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.

Bookmakers make Torreense the favourites: Torreense 2.10, draw 3.25, União de Leiria 3.25 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.80 and under at 2.00. Both teams to score: yes 1.62, no 2.20.

Our prediction: Under 3.5 Goals. Their last 6 meetings averaged 2.7 goals, recent form points to 1.6 goals a game and bookmakers price under 3.5 at 1.40.

Segunda Liga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
9	União de Leiria	9	4	2	3	+2	14
13	Torreense	9	2	4	3	-2	10

Odds (Bet365)

Torreense2.10 Draw3.25 União de Leiria3.25 1X1.33 121.33 X21.70 Over 1.51.22 Under 1.54.00 Over 3.52.75 Under 3.51.40 Over 2.51.80 Under 2.52.00 BTTS Yes1.62 BTTS No2.20

Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.

Data: API-Football · updated 8 Nov 2026, 15:26. Please gamble responsibly (18+).

Model probabilities

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.12 · most likely score 1-1 · data quality 80/100

Market	Model
Torreense win	40.1%
Draw	27.5%
União de Leiria win	32.3%
Home or draw (1X)	67.7%
Away or draw (X2)	59.9%
Over 1.5 goals	69.2%
Over 2.5 goals	43.1%
Under 2.5 goals	56.9%
Under 3.5 goals	77.8%
Both teams to score	48.7%

Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 8 Nov 2026, 16:14, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).

Match Analysis

API-Football win probability (for comparison)

Torreense 45% Draw 45% União de Leiria 10%

Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals — Their last 6 meetings averaged 2.7 goals, recent form points to 1.6 goals a game and bookmakers price under 3.5 at 1.40.