Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
Bulgaria First League
Slavia Sofia
Cherno More Varna
November 7, 2026 at 15:00 · Stadion Slavia
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Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna prediction and betting tip for this Bulgaria First League match, kicking off November 7, 2026 at 15:00 at Stadion Slavia. Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals (odds 1.20), 89% confidence.
Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna Preview
Slavia Sofia host Cherno More Varna in the Bulgaria First League (matchday 13) on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 WAT at Stadion Slavia in Sofia.
Slavia Sofia are 7th in the table with 13 points from 13 games (2-7-4), while Cherno More Varna sit 9th on 12 points. Only 1 point separates them. At home Slavia Sofia have won 0 of 6; Cherno More Varna have won 0 of 6 on the road.
Slavia Sofia have three draws and two defeats in their last 5 league games (D-L-L-D-D), averaging 0.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. Cherno More Varna have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 5 league games (D-D-L-W-W), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Slavia Sofia have won 2, Cherno More Varna 2, with 2 draws and an average of 1.8 goals per game. The most recent, in April 2026, finished Cherno More Varna 1-3 Slavia Sofia.
Slavia Sofia average 0.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game this season, with 6 clean sheets and 6 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Cherno More Varna average 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets and 4 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Bookmakers make Slavia Sofia the favourites: Slavia Sofia 2.62, draw 3.10, Cherno More Varna 2.80 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.35 and under at 1.57. Both teams to score: yes 2.00, no 1.73.
Our prediction: Under 3.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.1 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 1.8 goals and recent form points to 1.5 goals a game.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
Season stats
| Slavia Sofia | Cherno More Varna | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 13 | 13 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 2 / 7 / 4 | 3 / 3 / 7 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 9 (0.7) | 14 (1.1) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 9 (0.7) | 22 (1.7) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 1.4 / 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 4 |
| Longest winning run | 1 | 1 |
| Biggest win | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 13:26. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 0.97 – 0.82 · most likely score 0-0 · data quality 82/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia win | 37.8% |
| Draw | 32.8% |
| Cherno More Varna win | 29.4% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 70.6% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 62.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 53.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 73.2% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 89.2% |
| Both teams to score | 34.8% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 6 Nov 2026, 16:14, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.1 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 1.8 goals and recent form points to 1.5 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Slavia Sofia
DLLDD
0.2 scored · 0.6 conceded per game
Cherno More Varna
DDLWW
1.2 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Slavia Sofia wins 2 draws 2 Cherno More Varna wins last 6 meetings
- Cherno More Varna1 - 3Slavia Sofia First League
- Slavia Sofia0 - 0Cherno More Varna First League
- Cherno More Varna1 - 1Slavia Sofia First League
- Cherno More Varna1 - 0Slavia Sofia Cup
- Slavia Sofia1 - 0Cherno More Varna First League
- Cherno More Varna3 - 0Slavia Sofia First League
Statistics: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 06:30. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
