Toluca vs Monterrey
Mexico Liga MX
Toluca
Monterrey
November 8, 2026 at 02:00 · Estadio Nemesio Diez
Lost
Toluca vs Monterrey prediction and betting tip for this Mexico Liga MX match, kicking off November 8, 2026 at 02:00 at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Our tip: Both Teams to Score - Yes (odds 1.50), 66% confidence. Final score: 4-0 (2-0). The tip lost.
Toluca 4-0 Monterrey: Match Report
Toluca thrashed Monterrey 4-0 at Estadio Nemesio Diez in the Mexico Liga MX on Sunday. Toluca led 2-0 at half-time.
Nicolás Castro opened the scoring for Toluca on 8 minutes, set up by Brian Garcia. João Paulo Dias Fernandes made it 2-0 on 23 minutes, set up by Nicolás Castro. João Paulo Dias Fernandes made it 3-0 on 51 minutes, set up by Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro. Jesús Gallardo made it 4-0 on 90 minutes, set up by Federico Viñas.
Toluca had 62% of the ball and 10 shots (7 on target) to Monterrey's 7 (2). Expected goals finished Toluca 1.11, Monterrey 0.42, so Toluca deserved the win.
Carlos Salcedo (Monterrey, 61') was sent off. Referee Daniel Quintero Huitron showed 6 yellow cards.
Our tip, Both Teams to Score - Yes, lost as Monterrey failed to score.
Goals & cards
- 8' Nicolás Castro Toluca · assist Brian Garcia
- 23' João Paulo Dias Fernandes Toluca · assist Nicolás Castro
- 48' César Garza Monterrey · Yellow Card
- 51' João Paulo Dias Fernandes Toluca · assist Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
- 54' Lucas Ocampos Monterrey · Yellow Card
- 54' Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro Toluca · Yellow Card
- 54' Orbelín Pineda Monterrey · Yellow Card
- 59' Óliver Torres Monterrey · Yellow Card
- 61' Carlos Salcedo Monterrey · Red Card
- 71' Fidel Ambriz Monterrey · Yellow Card
- 90' Jesús Gallardo Toluca · assist Federico Viñas
Match stats
Before the match
Toluca hosted Monterrey in the Mexico Liga MX (Apertura - 16) on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 02:00 WAT at Estadio Nemesio Diez in Toluca. Daniel Quintero Huitron was the referee.
Toluca are 6th in the table with 24 points from 15 games (6-6-3), while Monterrey sit 10th on 21 points. Only 3 points separate them. At home Toluca have won 3 of 7; Monterrey have won 2 of 6 on the road.
Toluca have four draws and one defeat in their last 5 league games (L-D-D-D-D), averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Monterrey have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 5 league games (D-W-W-L-D), averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Toluca have won 4, Monterrey 2, with 0 draws and an average of 3.3 goals per game. The most recent, in October 2026, finished Monterrey 2-1 Toluca.
Toluca average 2.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Monterrey average 1.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets and 3 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
Players to watch: F. Viñas leads Toluca's scoring with 8 goals; L. Ocampos leads Monterrey's scoring with 7 goals and 3 assists.
Line-ups: Toluca lined up in a 4-2-3-1, Monterrey in a 4-2-3-1.
Before kick-off, bookmakers made Toluca the favourites: Toluca 1.65, draw 4.10, Monterrey 5.00 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.44 and under at 2.70. Both teams to score: yes 1.50, no 2.50.
Our prediction was Both Teams to Score - Yes. Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings and bookmakers price both teams to score at 1.50.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Toluca | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +10 | 24 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | +5 | 21 |
Season stats
| Toluca | Monterrey | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 15 | 14 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 6 / 6 / 3 | 6 / 3 / 5 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 31 (2.1) | 26 (1.9) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 21 (1.4) | 21 (1.5) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 2.6 / 1.6 | 2.0 / 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 |
| Longest winning run | 4 | 2 |
| Biggest win | 4-0 | 6-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
- F. Viñas 8 goals · 0 assists
- A. Vega 5 goals · 2 assists
- L. Ocampos 7 goals · 3 assists
- H. Cuypers 6 goals · 1 assist
- D. Rossi 5 goals · 3 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds before kick-off.
Starting line-ups
H. González, B. García, Luan, E. López, J. Gallardo, F. Romero, É. Gutiérrez, Helinho, N. Castro, A. Vega, Paulinho
Coach: A. Mohamed
E. Andrada, R. Chávez, V. Guzmán, C. Salcedo, G. Arteaga, Óliver Torres, O. Pineda, Cesar Garza Cantu, D. Rossi, L. Ocampos, H. Cuypers
Coach: M. Almeyda
Data: API-Football · updated 8 Nov 2026, 04:26. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 2.35 – 1.32 · most likely score 2-1 · data quality 86/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Toluca win | 60.5% |
| Draw | 19.1% |
| Monterrey win | 20.4% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 79.6% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 39.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.0% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 50.0% |
| Both teams to score | 66.3% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 7 Nov 2026, 16:13, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Both Teams to Score - Yes — Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings and bookmakers price both teams to score at 1.50.
Form (last 5)
Toluca
LDDDD
1.6 scored · 1.8 conceded per game
Monterrey
DWWLD
2.0 scored · 1.4 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
4 Toluca wins 0 draws 2 Monterrey wins last 6 meetings
- Monterrey2 - 1Toluca Friendlies Clubs
- Toluca2 - 0Monterrey Leagues Cup
- Monterrey0 - 1Toluca Liga MX
- Toluca3 - 2Monterrey Liga MX
- Monterrey1 - 0Toluca Liga MX
- Toluca6 - 2Monterrey Liga MX
Statistics: API-Football · updated 7 Nov 2026, 06:29. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
